The Ealing Rose

All the votes have been counted and the results in:

Boris won in both London and Ealing (just)

Onkar beat Barnes (just)

Labour beat the Tories in the across Ealing and Hillingdon comfortably 

What is notable is that the Boris and Ken re-run produced a similar result (in 2008 it was Boris 46% Ken 35%, if anything suggesting that Ken is more popular than last time, largely at the Lib Dems expense, an alarming conclusion for supporters of Tory governments minor partners in Westminster). This was a relatively modest Con-Lab swing of 2.5%

This is in notable contrast to the party list vote for the assembly which saw a much bigger swing of 8.8% from Con to Lab, and Onkar secured  a swing of 9.2 from Barnes in the constituency vote.

The most obvious conclusion to draw from this in Ealing is the widely held view that Ken was less popular than the Labour party but also Boris was more popular than the Tories.  This seems reasonable  given that the swings in Ealing are comparable to the London averages (Ken and Onkar actually did slightly better than average the party slightly worse).

Without wishing to overstate the idea (awareness of the presence, let alone powers of the London Assembly is low), there may be a sense in which people did not simply wish to protest against the government and perhaps balance the power of a Tory mayor.

This phenomena is known to psephologists (accademics who study voting behavior) as Cognitive Madisonianism (named after James Madison 4th president of the USA and founding father of the American constitution, who advocated a division of power between the different elements of government). It suggests that voters deliberately decide to split there votes between parties in an election to try and balance power between politicians.

Whatever the extent to which Boris escaped the national anti Tory vote because of the specific dynamics of the mayors race or the desire to split power in London, the split vote suggests that his mandate is a qualified one. He may have been the best (or perhaps least unpalatable) candidate for mayor in the eyes of Londoners, but support for his proposed policies is luke-warm. He would be ill advised to use the next 4 years as a spring board to re-launch a career in national politics, by pursuing right wing policies to please his parties membership, as it will not be popular in the capital.  It will be down to the Labour led Assembly to challenge his more controversial parts of his agenda such as above inflation fare rises.

Just as Labour must conclude from these results that it cannot simply rely on returning to old ground to win elections. Any Conservative that chooses to turn right on policy in Britain, London or Ealing does so at their electoral peril.

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As we enter the final week of both the Mayor and the London Assembly it is clear that the race will be very close. The latest YouGov poll (the only company to get the result right last time) indicates a narrow lead for Johnson, although within the margin of error. This is consistent with a poll conducted a week before that was even tighter. All of which means that it is  conceivable that Ken could pull a surprise on polling day.

3 Votes

What ever happens in the Mayor’s contest though it is important to remember that you get 3 votes on Thursday. One for Mayor, one for a representative of Ealing and Hillingdon the London Assembly and one for the party representatives on the London Assembly.

This is significant the same poll also indicates a substantial lead for Labour on the London Assembly, by 45% to  32% in the constituency vote and 44% to 30% in the party list ballot (the London Assembly uses a form of PR called the additional members system, a hybrid between first past the post and pure PR used in countries such as Israel). Without going into the vagaries of how the seats are allocated there is a very real possibility of Labour obtaining 12 seats (up 4) and the conservatives only 8 (down 3).

The reason why this particularly significant is that the mayor needs a to have at least 1/3 of the assembly support his budget i.e 9 votes and it looks decidedly touch and go as to whether the Conservatives could manage this.

This is why voting for Onkar Sahota, the Ealing and Hillingdon Labour candidate, is just as important to vote for Labour in the Mayoral election. Ealing and Hillingdon is one of the 3 most winnable constituency seats for Labour at this election (the party looks certain to win Barnet and Camden on current polling).  Even if Johnson gets in (a grim prospect, but one that must be recognised) the ability to stop him from producing budgets that deepen his cut of 1700 police officers or continue his track record of inflation topping fare increases, strikes, and poor service.

Onkar has a compelling personal biography, having worked hard all of his professional life to serve the people of Ealing, he deserves a chance to represent us on the London assembly on his own merits. The opportunity to stop more of the same Tory policies on a London wide level  is a crucial reason too though.

To send the Tories a message on Thursday, vote 3 times, and vote Labour!

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